Computer Predicitions for Sep 1 2015

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We are having an interesting discussion at gaming tonight about the trajectory of the computer market. Iain and I are arguing that Windows PC’s are being squeezed out by tablets running iOS or Android. Tom and John argue that Windows dominates the workplace. John goes so far as to say he knows of *no* company that uses tablets.

Thus this post, where we will predict the market share of Windows PC’s in 3 years [Aug 2015].

I will go first and say that Windows will have 1/2 the market share it has now. Further, in the workplace it will have 2/3rds of its current market share. I will further predict that Windows will be relegated to 3rd place in market share in 4 years [Aug 2016].

John agrees with my 1/2 market share overall, but says 3/4 in the workplace. John thinks it will take 20 years [Aug 2032] before Windows is in 3rd place of market share.

Iain says non-Windows computers (which includes tablets but excludes phones) will be 40% of the market in 3 years [Aug 2015].

Tom says in three years there will be 3/4 the number of desktop PC’s (i.e. not tablets). This includes laptops as a “desktop PC”. He also says the absolute number of PC’s running Windows will only drop a little bit, say by 15%. The share of tablets sold in that year will be 50% and desktops+laptops at 50%.

Jeff includes smartphones and predicts tablets + smartphones will be [… Bueller?]

Vartan says the market share of PCs (vs tablets+smartphones) will be more than 1% in 3 years [Aug 2015]. The absolute number of PC users will be about the same.

Note: we all agree to allow MS Surface (remember those?) to be included as Windows PC’s, even the ARM ones.

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