We are having an interesting discussion at gaming tonight about the trajectory of the computer market. Iain and I are arguing that Windows PC’s are being squeezed out by tablets running iOS or Android. Tom and John argue that Windows dominates the workplace. John goes so far as to say he knows of *no* company that uses tablets.Thus this post, where we will predict the market share of Windows PC’s in 3 years [Aug 2015]. I will go first and say that Windows will have 1/2 the market share it has now. Further, in the workplace it will have 2/3rds of its current market share. I will further predict that Windows will be relegated to 3rd place in market share in 4 years [Aug 2016]. John agrees with my 1/2 market share overall, but says 3/4 in the workplace. John thinks it will take 20 years [Aug 2032] before Windows is in 3rd place of market share. Iain says non-Windows computers (which includes tablets but excludes phones) will be 40% of the market in 3 years [Aug 2015]. Tom says in three years there will be 3/4 the number of desktop PC’s (i.e. not tablets). This includes laptops as a “desktop PC”. He also says the absolute number of PC’s running Windows will only drop a little bit, say by 15%. The share of tablets sold in that year will be 50% and desktops+laptops at 50%. Jeff includes smartphones and predicts tablets + smartphones will be [... Bueller?] Vartan says the market share of PCs (vs tablets+smartphones) will be more than 1% in 3 years [Aug 2015]. The absolute number of PC users will be about the same. Note: we all agree to allow MS Surface (remember those?) to be included as Windows PC’s, even the ARM ones.
Between the iPhone and iPod, the Mac doesn’t have a chance!
Assuming most of the iPod $$ are from those expensive (and high-margin) iPod Touch’s – all three profit sources run Mac OS X, just with different window managers. So you could make the case that they’re all Macs of one form or another.
When programming, it’s very useful to be able to find the differences between two text files.
On a Mac, I would use the built-in awesome diff utility, FileMerge.
It even has a nice command-line interface via the “opendiff” command.
(curse you, gaming industry, for preferring the Windows platform for game development!)
and need to find a diff tool there.
There are several, and I was going to go through them writing mini-reviews for each, but a clear winner emerged so quickly I won’t bother. WinMerge quickly became the obvious choice.
It is GPL licensed, and hosted on SourceForge.
I did briefly look at FreeDiff, but it suffered from
- clearly being a “gateway” app to other commercial apps (ad dialog on quit)
- being written in Visual Basic
- requiring 8 clicks to cancel an install!
- trying to overwrite C:\Windows\system32\scrrun.dll!!
- looking like a Windows 95 app
- Separating line numbers from content with a period
- Not supporting mouse wheel e3vents
- Not knowing which DLLs it could remove when uninstalled (I probably have a few ancient DLLs hanging around now)
Thankfully you can reduce them quickly using ctrl-minus (ctrl– doesn’t quite look right..).
It seems to be quite a rich application, complete with plugin architecture(!). I’ll try to write more after I’ve had some time to check it out more.
Two new shows are on BBC that are pretty good.
is about what look to be cell phone pictures from the future appearing at the lab of a solar astronomer of some kind.
He contacts the police, and they end up trying to prevent the disasters predicted by the pictures. It seems to be a mini-series with only 5 episodes, but I’m not sure.
is about a group of young offendors doing community service.
Thanks to a freak lightning storm, they (and many others in the area) are given special abilities.
Yes, it’s another “Heroes”-inspired show.
But the kids in this one would never be seen on mainstram US TV.
There’s no end of sexual innuendo, foul language and bad behaviour. It’s great!
Testing a Post via Google Wave
I’ve created a wave with the Posterous bot, and apparently this wave will be posted on posterous.com. I assume updates will also automatically be propogated? We shall see.