Technology Predictions

by ,

HD-DVD player

We are at Hrach’s discussing the future of technology, specifically HD content on disc (i.e. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD).

John is arguing that people will not buy Blu-Ray players (we’re assuming that Blu-Ray wins over HD-DVD, as seems likely)
for at least three years (i.e. February 2009); that is to say, in mass quantities.
At that point, Blu-Ray will be the preferred format for places like video rental stores.
This will be around when Spider-Man 5 comes out.

John says Blu-Ray will be dominant in new PC’s one year after Blu-Ray is released.
So assuming Blu-Ray comes out in April 2006 like we think it is, that would be April 2007.

Iain, Vartan and Jeff think that Rogers and Blockbuster switchover to Blu-Ray will be Christmas 2008.

Iain further said that it will be only one year for computers (i.e. Feb 2007).

*I* think that the switch-over will happen around Christmas 2007.

Feel free to leave comments with your own predictions about when the DVD will die and Blu-Ray will be ascendant.

entertainment, friends, hardware.

About rae

I'm a long-time Mac and iOS developer. I'm also a big fan of Ruby on Rails and relational databases. I tend to work remotely, in my basement with occasional trips to the office. I'm also a big videophile, both TV and film, and can't wait for a good, inexpensive home 4k solution.

3 comments on “Technology Predictions

  1. Jeff K

    Blu-ray has the wrong name. Sounds too Euro. “HD-DVD” sounds real macho-American. I’m not worried about it. is ready to rent me whatever I want. 🙂

  2. Korak

    Jeff K. may have something there with the product names.

    Betamax – Sony’s superior, but Euro sounding, home VCR format from 1975
    VHS – JVC’s inferior, but macho-American sounding, home VCR format from 1976

    Could Blu-ray get Betamaxed by HD-DVD? Probably not – and anyways, Blu-Ray Disc can be abbreviated to a concise macho-American BD if necessary.

  3. rae Post author

    VHS had much more quantity vs Beta’s much higher quality.

    In this case, there is no quality difference. As far as I’m concerned, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are a wash w.r.t. quality. Blu-Ray has a huge lead in the quantity department though.

    It should be pointed out, however, that VHS didn’t win because of quantity. It won because of licensing. Again, a wash.

    The only differential I can find is the quantity – BD maxes at 200 GB while HD-DVD is still maxing out around 30 GB, right?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *